Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction61% (51% - 71%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

Biden approves $571M in defense support for Taiwan

FOX News•Dec 22, 2024

US President Biden authorises US$571 million in military aid to Taiwan

•Dec 22, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

Biden approves $571M in defense support for Taiwan

FOX News•Dec 22, 2024

US President Biden authorises US$571 million in military aid to Taiwan

•Dec 22, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%