Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters250

Community Prediction61%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

median 61.0%mean 60.6%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

China’s Gray-Zone Offensive Against Taiwan Is Backfiring

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Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

71%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%