Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

33 comments33

Total Forecasters971

Community Prediction80% (70% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

The maps that show how China’s military is squeezing Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

Taiwan Publicizes the US Is Sending Troops for Two-Year Naval Training Program

AntiWar•Jan 23, 2025

Taiwan Faces First Trump Test Amid China Tensions

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

The maps that show how China’s military is squeezing Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

Taiwan Publicizes the US Is Sending Troops for Two-Year Naval Training Program

AntiWar•Jan 23, 2025

Taiwan Faces First Trump Test Amid China Tensions

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%