Question

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction68% (55% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says human operators need to have 'meaningful control' of AI drones in warfare

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Data on animal movements help Hungarian researchers create a swarm of autonomous drones

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Future of Life Institute

University of California, Berkeley

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says human operators need to have 'meaningful control' of AI drones in warfare

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Data on animal movements help Hungarian researchers create a swarm of autonomous drones

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

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Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Comments

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?