Question

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters147

Community Prediction70% (50% - 83.6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 1, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

60.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 1, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan independence movement

China

Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Joe Biden

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

60.2%