Question

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters294

Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

median 5.0%mean 10.2%

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

World Health Organization

Novel Pathogen in China November 2023? → 25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Wombat

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

World Health Organization

WHO warns of measles resurgence as cases exceed 10 million in 2023

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Measles cases rose to more than 10 million in 2023, WHO and CDC say

NBC•Nov 15, 2024

‘It is a pandemic’: UK’s envoy on superbugs says scale of threat underestimated

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Novel Pathogen in China November 2023? → 25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k