Question

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters224

Community Prediction90% (85% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

With AI adoption on the rise, developers face a challenge — handling risk

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Google’s new Jules AI agent will help developers fix buggy code

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

With AI adoption on the rise, developers face a challenge — handling risk

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Google’s new Jules AI agent will help developers fix buggy code

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

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Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Comments

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?