Question

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters224

Community Prediction90%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

median 90.0%mean 83.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

27%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Sam Altman thanks Elon Musk for helping to initially bankroll OpenAI — and says now is a great time for tech founders

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

27%