Question

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters220

Community Prediction89%

Make a Prediction

community: 89%

median 89.0%mean 78.4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

85%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

Study: Developers Using AI Coding Assistants Suffer from 41% Increase in Bugs

Breitbart•Oct 2, 2024

'A lot of money is going to get wasted': MIT economist sounds the alarm on AI hype

Business Insider•Oct 2, 2024

Google says its AI designs chips better than humans – experts disagree

New Scientist•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

85%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

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Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Comments

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?