📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

25
7
Total Forecasters130
Community Prediction90% (80% - 94%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 90%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Demonstrations
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Elon Musk
Gary Marcus
Lean (proof assistant)
Coq

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