Question

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters128

Community Prediction85%

Make a Prediction

community: 85%

median 85.0%mean 75.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Gary Marcus

Lean (proof assistant)

Coq

Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis explains what needs to happen to move from chatbots to AGI

Business Insider•Oct 20, 2024

AI is set to transform science – but will we understand the results?

Raw Story•Oct 22, 2024

Meta AI tackles maths problems that stumped humans for over a century

New Scientist•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

90%

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%