Question

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters172

Community Prediction

97%

(90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 97%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

A new, challenging AGI test stumps most AI models

TechCrunch•Mar 25, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Summary by AI

•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

28%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2022

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk

Philosophy

Gary Marcus

Artificial general intelligence

New York University

A new, challenging AGI test stumps most AI models

TechCrunch•Mar 25, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Summary by AI

•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

28%

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%