📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312
4k
3645 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CandidateMe
Donald Trump
yes
Michelle Obama
no
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
no
Nikki Haley
no
Jill Stein
no
Hillary Clinton
no
Joe Biden
no
Mike Pence
no
Gretchen Whitmer
no
Pete Buttigieg
no
Andrew Yang
no
Chase Oliver
no
Ron DeSantis
no
Tim Scott
no
Vivek Ramaswamy
no
Cornel West
no
Kamala Harris
no
Gavin Newsom
no
J.D. Vance
no
Tim Walz
no
Resolved Nov 7, 2024
Community Baseline Score
-107.0
Community Peer Score
50.0
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
US Electoral College
Mike Pence
2024 Elections (US)
US presidential election
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Pete Buttigieg

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