📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

8
6
Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction7% (1% - 13%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 7%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Biosecurity Tournament
Politics
Health & Pandemics
Natural Sciences
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Virology
Public health
COVID-19
Emergency Use Authorization
Epidemiology
Food and Drug Administration
Public health emergency (United States)
Medicine
Phases of clinical research

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