Question

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

104 comments104

Total Forecasters224

Community Prediction64% (44% - 78%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 64%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

What Will China Do With Its Newfound Military Power?

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

What Will China Do With Its Newfound Military Power?

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

20%