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What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

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Date	resolution
December 14, 2024	-
Date	25th	median	75th
December 14, 2026	91.7 ...	93.7 ...	95.4 ...

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>99.5

...

90.29

91.93

93.61

1.6%

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

December 14, 2026

December 14, 2024

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What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

207

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

94.6

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

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The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

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What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

207

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

94.6

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

Comments

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?