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If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

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202 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Ukraine

Israel

Pakistan

India

North Korea

Russia

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Region		My Prediction		Me
Ukraine	27%

Israel	20%

Pakistan	11%

India	7%

North Korea	7%

Russia	5%

US, UK, or France	2%

China	1%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

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Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

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At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

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If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Comments

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?