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Question

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

Total Forecasters934
Community Prediction27% (22% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 27%
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.
Despite the increase in troop numbers, Russia has been unable to induce sufficient numbers of volunteers for combat, with official numbers of 'volunteer recruits' being exaggerated.
Opened:
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