Group

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

195 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Tesla

Waymo

Any Service

Make a Prediction

Driverless Service	25th	median	75th
Any Service	2025-06-17 ...	2026-11-10 ...	2029-01-02 ...
Tesla	2025-12-27 ...	2027-07-12 ...	2029-12-17 ...
Waymo	2025-04-24 ...	2027-01-29 ...	2028-12-05 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-12-23

...

2025-06-17 08:46

2026-11-10 07:51

2029-01-02 15:37

6.8%

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-04-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Now anyone in LA can hail a Waymo robotaxi

TechCrunch•Nov 13, 2024

Waymo opens robotaxis to anyone in Los Angeles, marking its largest expansion yet

NBC•Nov 13, 2024

Waymo’s robotaxis are now available to everyone in Los Angeles

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-04-03