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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

122 comments122

246 forecasters

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SAE Autonomy Level

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Resolved

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Mar 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 29, 2119

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2120

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Mar 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 29, 2119

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2120

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Driverless Uber rides now challenging Elon Musk’s Tesla in its backyard

CNN•Mar 4, 2025

Waymo is now available exclusively on Uber in Austin

Verge•Mar 4, 2025

You Probably Don't Know That AI Is Already Making Your Commute Safer

Newsweek•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%