Group

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

TBD group label	resolution
L3	Apr 15, 2021
L4	Oct 20, 2020
	25th	median	75th
L5	2026-09 ...	2030-04 ...	2037-01 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12

2021-08

2022-10

2025-08

0.1%

What was the final result?Apr 15, 2021

Authors:

Mati_Roy

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mati_Roy

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

Comments

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?