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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

245 forecasters

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SAE Autonomy Level	resolution
L3	Apr 15, 2021
L4	Oct 20, 2020
SAE Autonomy Level	25th	median	75th
L5	2026-09-14 ...	2029-10-10 ...	2036-04-01 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-25

2021-08-26 18:42

2022-10-30 23:15

2025-08-18 03:55

0.1%

What was the final result?Apr 15, 2021

Community Baseline Score

98.0

Community Peer Score

32.9

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Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

The Secret Psychology of Driving

Psychology Today•Dec 17, 2024

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Mercedes-Benz’s Level 3 driver assist system can go faster on the Autobahn.

Verge•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

The Secret Psychology of Driving

Psychology Today•Dec 17, 2024

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Mercedes-Benz’s Level 3 driver assist system can go faster on the Autobahn.

Verge•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Comments

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?