Question

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction2029-12-22

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-06-30

...

2026-12-11 15:21

2029-12-22 13:11

2037-02-02 16:36

3.6%

Authors:

ersatz

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Sports & Entertainment

Artificial Intelligence

The New York Times Best Seller list

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

65%

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

44%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ersatz

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Sports & Entertainment

Artificial Intelligence

The New York Times Best Seller list

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Guardian•Nov 5, 2024

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TechCrunch•Nov 6, 2024

‘It gets more and more confused’: can AI replace translators?

Guardian•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

65%

When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?

By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

44%