Question
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Total Forecasters96
Community Prediction2026-01-02 (2025-01-16 - 2027-05-10)
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CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Jan 2025 | — |
| median | Jan 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | May 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2040-01-02 | 1.0% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
