Question

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

70 comments70

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction

2029

(2026 - 2033)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	2026	2029	2033	1.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2026	—
median	2029	—
upper 75%	2033	—
Upper bound
>410253120000%	1.4%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 20, 2022

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

A new, challenging AGI test stumps most AI models

TechCrunch•Mar 25, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Summary by AI

•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

Oct 2025

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

82%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 20, 2022

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

A new, challenging AGI test stumps most AI models

TechCrunch•Mar 25, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Summary by AI

•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

Oct 2025

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

82%

MetaculusM

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Comments

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

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