Question
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
Total Forecasters171
Community Prediction2029-02-07 (2026-07-07 - 2033-11-08)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2026 | — |
| median | 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100-01-02 | 1.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
