Question

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction47.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 47.1%

median 47.1%mean 56.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

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Associated Press•Nov 13, 2024

Tesla stock could soar 50% as it broadens beyond autos and as Musk exerts more political influence, Morgan Stanley says

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03