Question

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction47%

Make a Prediction

community: 47.1%

median 47.1%mean 54.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

83%

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

83%

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

MetaculusM

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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Make a Prediction

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Comments

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?