Question

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction56% (33% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 56%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2037

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2037

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Nvidia's autonomous car business is rising. Here's how it could make every car self-driving.

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

One Of The Last Robot Truckers Finally Ready To Hit The Road

Forbes•Jan 21, 2025

Pricing revealed for new self-driving cars launching in 2026 that aim to compete with Tesla

Daily Mail•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2037

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2037

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

Nvidia's autonomous car business is rising. Here's how it could make every car self-driving.

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

One Of The Last Robot Truckers Finally Ready To Hit The Road

Forbes•Jan 21, 2025

Pricing revealed for new self-driving cars launching in 2026 that aim to compete with Tesla

Daily Mail•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03