Question

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction55% (33% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Wayve's AI Self-Driving System Is Here to Drive Like a Human and Take On Waymo and Tesla

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The winner of the robotaxi race will come down to a few players. Here's why.

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Transport

Contiguous United States

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Wayve's AI Self-Driving System Is Here to Drive Like a Human and Take On Waymo and Tesla

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The winner of the robotaxi race will come down to a few players. Here's why.

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Make a Prediction

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

Comments

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?