Group

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

54 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

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Level		My Prediction		Me
Level 3	25%

Level 2	3%

Level 1	1%

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Cybersecurity standards

United States

Information security

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Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

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Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Cybersecurity standards

United States

Information security

Cuban Missile Crisis

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

Cybersecurity At A Crossroads As Global Threats Hit Record Highs

Forbes•Nov 19, 2024

Get ready for World War Three: Zelensky said missiles speak louder than words... now they have roared: MARK ALMOND

Daily Mail•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%