Group

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

54 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Make a Prediction

Level		My Prediction		Me
Level 3	8%

Level 2	1%

Level 1	0.1%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Cybersecurity standards

Yom Kippur War

United States

Information security

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Cybersecurity standards

Yom Kippur War

United States

Information security

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Comments

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?