Group

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2035	50%

2030	30%

2025	1%

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

2025

Authors:

xsg1313

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal

Business Insider•Oct 31, 2024

A US invasion of Taiwan in WWII would have been a disaster. A Chinese operation faces similar dangers.

Business Insider•Nov 4, 2024

China's Neighbor Receives HIMARS Boost From US Amid Invasion Threat

Newsweek•Nov 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

xsg1313

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal

Business Insider•Oct 31, 2024

A US invasion of Taiwan in WWII would have been a disaster. A Chinese operation faces similar dangers.

Business Insider•Nov 4, 2024

China's Neighbor Receives HIMARS Boost From US Amid Invasion Threat

Newsweek•Nov 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch