Question

Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?

Resolved :No

26 comments26

Total Forecasters196

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

0.8

median 1.0%mean 1.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Territorial waters

Jens Stoltenberg

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

Luhansk People's Republic

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Territorial waters

Jens Stoltenberg

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

Luhansk People's Republic

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Putin fine-tunes Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine, in clear signal to West

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Putin issues warning to United States with new nuclear doctrine after Biden allows Ukraine to use long-range US missiles

New York Post•Nov 19, 2024

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