Question

Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?

Resolved :Yes90%

132

42 comments42

Total Forecasters402

Community Prediction90% (60% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

69.7

Community Peer Score

19.3

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Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Atmospheric science

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

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USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

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New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

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Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Atmospheric science

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

The state of the Arctic: High temperatures, melting ice, fires and unprecedented emissions

NBC•Dec 11, 2024

24 disasters, $24 billion in damage: Assessing 2024's climate catastrophes

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

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Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?