Question

Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?

Resolved :Yes

132

42 comments42

Total Forecasters402

Community Prediction

90%

(60% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

69.7

Community Peer Score

19.3

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Feb 8, 2016

Closes:

Jul 31, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 18, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 8, 2016

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Even moderate CO2 emissions could lead to 7°C of warming by 2200

New Scientist•Mar 25, 2025

Map Shows Where Spring Temperatures Could Break Records

Newsweek•Mar 25, 2025

When Will We Reach 1.5 C of Warming? And How Will Climate Scientists Know?

Scientific American•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

70%

Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Feb 8, 2016

Closes:

Jul 31, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 18, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 8, 2016

Environment & Climate

2016 Leaderboard

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Even moderate CO2 emissions could lead to 7°C of warming by 2200

New Scientist•Mar 25, 2025

Map Shows Where Spring Temperatures Could Break Records

Newsweek•Mar 25, 2025

When Will We Reach 1.5 C of Warming? And How Will Climate Scientists Know?

Scientific American•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

70%

Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%