Question

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 1.7%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

Donald Trump could be offered second state visit to UK ‘because of change in monarch’

Guardian•Nov 11, 2024

The key candidates for the UK’s ambassador to the US as Donald Trump returns to the White House

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

NY Post: Jets Employees Asking if Woody Johnson is Going Back to the UK

•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

Donald Trump could be offered second state visit to UK ‘because of change in monarch’

Guardian•Nov 11, 2024

The key candidates for the UK’s ambassador to the US as Donald Trump returns to the White House

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

NY Post: Jets Employees Asking if Woody Johnson is Going Back to the UK

•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%