📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years?

10
7
91 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<75
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>90
0.1%
80.44
80.95
81.52
0.1%

What was the final result?81.4

Community Baseline Score
84.0
Community Peer Score
16.6

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting Our World in Data
Health & Pandemics
Social Sciences
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Italy
Our World in Data
Group of Eight
Group of Seven
United Kingdom
Japan
Canada
France
Germany

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