Question
Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?
Resolved:13Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction
6.73
(4.24 - 9.73)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 4.238 | — |
| median | 6.728 | — |
| upper 75% | 9.726 | — |
What was the final result?13
Community Baseline Score
-18.0
Community Peer Score
45.5
Authors:
Opened:Oct 3, 2022
Closes:Nov 1, 2022
Resolves:Nov 23, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
2 comments
Authors:
Opened:Oct 3, 2022
Closes:Nov 1, 2022
Resolves:Nov 23, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
AlexL
·Based on this report from Transparent Replications, the study was able to replicate 13 of the 17 findings. This question will resolve as 13.
https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replication-2022jpsp122-3/
EvanHarper
·Oh, wow. Seems I seriously under-estimated the study, or perhaps over-estimated the rigor of the replication procedure. This outcome was barely within my 95% confidence interval; my median was just five. Not that I thought of this as a bad study or inherently unlikely result, I think I probably just misapplied a mental base rate I'd established back in the "Replication Crisis" dark ages of a decade ago. It seems the social psychologists are alright!