📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

8
10
78 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<7k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>11k
0.1%
9.402k
9.532k
9.662k
1.8%

What was the final result?9.58k

Community Baseline Score
99.7
Community Peer Score
29.8

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting Our World in Data
Geopolitics
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Our World in Data
Soviet Union
Barack Obama
Physics
Ronald Reagan
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Military science
Nuclear weapon

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