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What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?

12 comments12

66 forecasters

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Year

resolution

Year

median

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Forecast Timeline

2023

2025

2032

2052

2122

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Our World in Data

Steven Pinker

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Global Research•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Plane crashes 2025: How many have there been in the US, how many people have been killed?

USA Today•Feb 18, 2025

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What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

18.6k

What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

5.32

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.57k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Our World in Data

Steven Pinker

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Global Research•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Plane crashes 2025: How many have there been in the US, how many people have been killed?

USA Today•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

18.6k

What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

5.32

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.57k