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What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?

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66 forecasters

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Year	resolution
2023	1.9
Year	25th	median	75th
2025	1.38 ...	1.97 ...	3.03 ...
2032	1.05 ...	1.71 ...	2.89 ...
2052	0.401 ...	1.13 ...	3.36 ...
2122	0.0482 ...	0.544 ...	3.03 ...

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CDF

community

<0.1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

0.2%

1.376

2.029

2.862

0.2%

What was the final result?1.9

Community Baseline Score

68.7

Community Peer Score

16.9

Forecast Timeline

2023

2025

2032

2052

2122

Authors:

RyanBeck

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting Our World in Data

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Our World in Data

Steven Pinker

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

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