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Group

What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?

8
12
66 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th
community
<0.1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20
0.2%
1.376
2.029
2.862
0.2%

What was the final result?1.9

Community Baseline Score
68.7
Community Peer Score
16.9
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting Our World in Data
Geopolitics
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Our World in Data
Steven Pinker
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Uppsala Conflict Data Program

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