Question

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction20% (7% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

People's Liberation Army

US drops website wording on not supporting Taiwan independence, prompting praise from island

USA Today•Feb 17, 2025

US drops wording saying it does not support Taiwan independence

Al Jazeera•Feb 17, 2025

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

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