Question

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction20% (10% - 24%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military activity near Taiwan intensifies, 24 PLA aircraft detected

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military activity near Taiwan intensifies, 24 PLA aircraft detected

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

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Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Make a Prediction

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Comments

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?