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What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

19 comments19

64 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year

resolution

Year

median

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Forecast Timeline

2122

2032

2052

2025

2023

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Computing and Math

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Frontier (supercomputer)

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Confucius, DeepSeek, and Why China would win a war with the United States

Strategic Culture•Feb 16, 2025

Why Google's quantum computing breakthrough is such a big deal

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

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What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.6

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

49.6

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Computing and Math

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Frontier (supercomputer)

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Confucius, DeepSeek, and Why China would win a war with the United States

Strategic Culture•Feb 16, 2025

Why Google's quantum computing breakthrough is such a big deal

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.6

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

49.6