Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?

30
14
Total Forecasters173
Community Prediction0.165 (0.0264 - 0.499)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1×10⁻⁵
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
...
1.0%
0.0264
0.165
0.4994
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
googolplexbyte
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Fermi Paradox Series
Space
Natural Sciences
Astronomy
Philosophy
Astrobiology
Fermi paradox
Drake equation

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