Question

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

11 comments11

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 3.5%mean 11.1%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Kiev

Vladimir Putin

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

United States

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Putin orders massive nuclear training exercise in Russia

New York Post•Oct 30, 2024

Putin rehearses nuclear WAR: Russia gives terrifying glimpse of WW3 onset by testing missiles capable of unleashing 'massive nuclear strike'

Daily Mail•Oct 30, 2024

Putin orders nuclear forces to be 'ready for combat use' due to new 'external threats and risks' in latest chilling WW3 rant as he watches missile exercises

Daily Mail•Oct 30, 2024

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