Question

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction7% (4% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Nov 3, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Geopolitics

Law

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Engineering

Solar radiation management

Climatology

Environmental science

Solar physics

Climate change denial

Here’s what the Paris climate agreement does and doesn’t do

Associated Press•Jan 22, 2025

Why Trump’s Exit From Paris Agreement May Not Be Official Until 2026

Forbes•Jan 22, 2025

Solar geoengineering is here, whether we like it or not

Canary•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

20%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Nov 3, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Geopolitics

Law

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Engineering

Solar radiation management

Climatology

Environmental science

Solar physics

Climate change denial

Here’s what the Paris climate agreement does and doesn’t do

Associated Press•Jan 22, 2025

Why Trump’s Exit From Paris Agreement May Not Be Official Until 2026

Forbes•Jan 22, 2025

Solar geoengineering is here, whether we like it or not

Canary•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

20%