Question

Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?

49 comments49

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction73% (66% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 73%

Authors:

trillionage

Opened:

Nov 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2052

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2052

Reproductive medicine

Hong Kong

Taiwan

China wants people to get married and have children — no one is listening

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Iran Faces Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Trump's Gag Rule Is a Small Part of Society's Pronatalist Conspiracy

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Birth Rates in the Modern World

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

2.17

Comments

? comments

Authors:

trillionage

Opened:

Nov 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2052

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2052

Reproductive medicine

Hong Kong

Taiwan

China wants people to get married and have children — no one is listening

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Iran Faces Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Trump's Gag Rule Is a Small Part of Society's Pronatalist Conspiracy

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Birth Rates in the Modern World

What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years?

2.17