Question

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters85

Community Prediction2.57 (0.991 - 6.17)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100

...

0.9907

2.568

6.171

2.0%

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

SpaceX reusable launch system

Colonization of the Moon

Roscosmos

China National Space Administration

The Moon and Mars – Not a pie in the sky if the FAA and EPA will just get out of the way

American Thinker•Dec 15, 2024

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Cost overruns jeopardize Artemis moon landing, threaten NASA SLS rocket's future

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

2040-08-27

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

2.09

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

SpaceX reusable launch system

Colonization of the Moon

Roscosmos

China National Space Administration

The Moon and Mars – Not a pie in the sky if the FAA and EPA will just get out of the way

American Thinker•Dec 15, 2024

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Cost overruns jeopardize Artemis moon landing, threaten NASA SLS rocket's future

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

2040-08-27

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

2.09

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What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Comments

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?