Question

In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.2

Community Peer Score

7.8

median 0.1%mean 1.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

Daily Mail•Nov 24, 2024

Taiwan reports sighting of Chinese balloon near island

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

US Makes Missile Plan With Eye on Chinese Invasion

Newsweek•Nov 25, 2024

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