What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?
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This resolves as the annual headline CPI inflation in the US, in percent, not seasonally adjusted, for each year. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for December of the listed year by the BLS, typically found here. Resolution will be according to the value reported as the unadjusted 12 month change ending in December. The value will resolve to a precision of one decimal place
Forecast Timeline
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, for the United States. The BLS typically releases its CPI estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.
There are two versions of CPI. One is typically known as headline CPI which is the full measure, while the other is typically known as core CPI, which doesn't include food and energy.
Below is a graph of the annual change in CPI in the US, not seasonally adjusted, from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The annual change is measured from December of the year in question to the December of the prior year. Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.
What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months?
What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?
What will be the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following years?
Comments
Resolved for 2023 as 3.4 based on the BLS release for December 2023. 2028 has also been added.
01/15/2025In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December (SA); up 3.2 percent over the year (NSA).
johnnycaffeine
·2024 resolves as 2.9 percent. Thank you.