M

Group

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

5
Closes Jan 10, 2029
6
31 forecasters
Community Prediction-50510152022202320242025202620272028

Make a Prediction

Year
median
Resolved

This resolves as the annual headline CPI inflation in the US, in percent, not seasonally adjusted, for each year. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for December of the listed year by the BLS, typically found here. Resolution will be according to the value reported as the unadjusted 12 month change ending in December. The value will resolve to a precision of one decimal place

Forecast Timeline

Community Prediction123456Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28now

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, for the United States. The BLS typically releases its CPI estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.

There are two versions of CPI. One is typically known as headline CPI which is the full measure, while the other is typically known as core CPI, which doesn't include food and energy.

Below is a graph of the annual change in CPI in the US, not seasonally adjusted, from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The annual change is measured from December of the year in question to the December of the prior year. Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.


Authors:
Opened:Dec 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 10, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 15, 2029

Comments

6 comments

2024 resolves as 2.9 percent. Thank you.


1

Resolved for 2023 as 3.4 based on the BLS release for December 2023. 2028 has also been added.

2

@RyanBeck

Resolution source has been updated thru December 2024!

@citizen

01/15/2025In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December (SA); up 3.2 percent over the year (NSA).


Resolved for 2022 as 6.5 based on the BLS release for December 2022.

@RyanBeck 2027 has also been added.

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy