Question

In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.7

Community Peer Score

7.3

median 1.0%mean 1.8%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

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Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

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Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%