M

Question

On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?

Resolved :No
6
21
Total Forecasters178
Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
72.7
Community Peer Score
11.7
median 1.0%mean 1.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
Geopolitics
Crimean Bridge
Scott Alexander
Crimea
Russia

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