Question

In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?

Resolved :No90%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters85

Community Prediction90% (86% - 91%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-87.9

Community Beer Score

3.2

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Scott Alexander

Gary Marcus

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Scott Alexander

Gary Marcus

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%

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In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?

Make a Prediction

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Comments

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?