Question

In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?

Resolved :No1%

11 comments11

Total Forecasters186

Community Prediction1% (0.4% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.2

Community Peer Score

23.6

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Scott Alexander

Competitive programming

Can simplifying AI rules in Europe create competition for US and China?

Al Jazeera•Feb 12, 2025

How AI will divide the best from the rest

Economist•Feb 14, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2031-06-01

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

23%

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

2026-04-07

Comments

? comments