Question

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction1.76k (1.67k - 1.85k)

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My Prediction

community

<175

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

0.3%

1.673k

1.765k

1.849k

0.2%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

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Business of AI

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

OpenAI

DeepMind

Microsoft debuts Phi-4, a new generative AI model, in research preview

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Linguistics

OpenAI

DeepMind

Microsoft debuts Phi-4, a new generative AI model, in research preview

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

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If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Make a Prediction

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Comments

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?