Question

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29.7%

median 29.7%mean 32.9%

Authors:

dtark

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Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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2032-07-07

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33%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dtark

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Alarming development as mutated bird flu strain that is 30x deadlier leaves American infected

Daily Mail•Oct 29, 2024

The role of fear in modern societies: Our ancient fear response to new situations is not always helpful in a civilised society

•Oct 30, 2024

A Bird Flu Vaccine Might Come Too Late to Save Us from H5N1

Scientific American•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

2032-07-07

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

33%