Question

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction28% (16.5% - 35%)

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50%

community: 28%

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RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

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Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

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Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

Make a Prediction

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Comments

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?