Question

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction28%

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50%

community: 28%

median 28.0%mean 29.1%

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

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AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.43M

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.43M

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%