Question

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?

Resolved:Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

27.5

Community Peer Score

22.1

Authors:

InquilineKea

Opened:

Jan 31, 2023

Closes:

Apr 1, 2024

Resolves:

May 20, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2023

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Taiwan

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

AOC's Chances of Beating Chuck Schumer in New York—New Poll

Newsweek•Apr 4, 2025

Kamala Harris Was 'Completely Shocked' She Lost to Trump—New Book

Newsweek•Apr 4, 2025

‘There Will Be A 2028’: John Fetterman Leaves Door Open For Potential Presidential Run

Daily Caller•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

46%

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

15%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

InquilineKea

Opened:

Jan 31, 2023

Closes:

Apr 1, 2024

Resolves:

May 20, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2023

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Taiwan

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

AOC's Chances of Beating Chuck Schumer in New York—New Poll

Newsweek•Apr 4, 2025

Kamala Harris Was 'Completely Shocked' She Lost to Trump—New Book

Newsweek•Apr 4, 2025

‘There Will Be A 2028’: John Fetterman Leaves Door Open For Potential Presidential Run

Daily Caller•Apr 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

46%

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

15%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

MetaculusM

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?

Make a Prediction

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Comments

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.