Question

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?

Resolved :Yes99%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

27.5

Community Peer Score

22.1

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Authors:

InquilineKea

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

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CNN•Dec 16, 2024

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Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

InquilineKea

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

2020 Taiwanese presidential election

Tsai Ing-wen

Democratic Progressive Party

China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan: Trends and Patterns

•Dec 13, 2024

From defense to chips, Trump keeps Taiwan guessing

CNN•Dec 16, 2024

Democrats eye Harris 2028 presidential run as they devise political comeback

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

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Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?

Make a Prediction

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? → Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?