M

Question

Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving from October 1st to December 31st 2018 (inclusive) will resolve positively?

Resolved :3944.7
Community Prediction18.229.540.852.1Oct 09Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24Oct 27Oct 30Nov 02Nov 05Nov 08Nov 11Nov 14Nov 17Nov 20Nov 23Nov 26Nov 29now
Total Forecasters47
Community Prediction44.7 (37.8 - 51.1)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

05101520253035404550556065707580859095100
QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%37.8
median44.7
upper 75%51.08

What was the final result?39

Community Baseline Score
61.5
Community Peer Score
9.8
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2018
Closes:Nov 30, 2018
Resolves:Jan 21, 2019

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