📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years?

11
7
39 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<4B
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>6B
0.2%
4.908B
5.026B
5.155B
0.2%

What was the final result?4.91B

Community Baseline Score
64.8
Community Peer Score
9.2

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Climate Tipping Points
Climate Tipping Points Round 1
Environment & Climate
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Our World in Data
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Chemistry
Paris Agreement
Atmospheric science
Carbon dioxide
Environmental science
Greenhouse gas emissions by the US
Climatology

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